Chinese President Xi Jinping himself vaguely spoke about a Chinese role in resolving the conflict in March and December 2022. China also sees that mediating could easily turn into a Western push to force Beijing to sanction Russia. China’s mediation calculus might also be influenced if Moscow asks Beijing to mediate or the war escalates catastrophically. China is unlikely to mediate in the Russia–Ukraine war, at least until circumstances change significantly. In the meantime, Beijing will continue to make noises about mediating the conflict and restraining Russia to mollify the West.
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